The Troubles In Iraq: Are We Facing An Impending Civil War?

The fundamental problem that is not being dealt with by the Bush administration and our military stretegists under Secretary Rumsfeld is that no one is conscious of the societal structures inherent in Iraq. Sure, they have analysts telling them about the social dynamics, the religion and such, but the vast number of military operations are ignoring all but the niceties.

Our troops are given a few phrases, some rudiments of Islamic traditions, some advice on dealing differently with men and women, but this is superficial. Deep down to the roots of Iraqi culture and the different manifestations of Islam within its borders the entire situation is completely missed.

Politically, Iraq has the following dynamics and groups:

Baathists: The majority of those that had been members of the Baath Party were Sunni or non-practicing secularists. The focus of these folks was power, wealth and influence, usually by any means necessary. Their support of Saddam was based upon "saving face," acknowledged affiliation with the Hussein regime, acquisition of wealth and status, and traditional tribal structures. All of these factors are related to reputation and status, which is very important in the Arab and Middle Eastern world.

But, despite the secularist behaviors of many in the Baath Party, deep down they remain Muslim. The "liberal" attitudes and social indulgences that might have been granted to Baath Party members, there were definite limits that are not clearly understood by westerners. Islam runs deep into their lives even if they do not paint their religious views on their shirt sleeves.

Many of the Baathists are former members of the Iraqi government and/or the military. Once the government and military were disbanded, many of these folks became members--and leaders--of the insurgency. Under the continued Baathist influence, the initial impetus behind the insurgency was to restore power, wealth and influence to members of the party. However, as has been reported by the recent airing of the FRONTLINE documentary on "The Insurgency," the influence of radical Islamists is changing the thinking of these Baathists. The roots of Islam that have been ostensibly buried are beginning to sprout new growth.

Kurds: The majority of Kurds are Sunni Muslims that have a common Persian root to their ethnicity. The Kurds in Iraq are related to Kurds in Turkey, Iran, Azerbaijan, Syria, and Armenia. However, there is a significant dual identity as Iraqi Kurds, despite the relationships among Kurds in the different areas. There are language differences between the regions where Kurds live.

There is a sense of oppression and restriction among the Kurds because they are minorities in every country and culture where they are present. The Iraqi Kurds have suffered significantly under the Hussein/Baathist regime, including the use of chemical weapons against them at various times.

There is more openness toward democracy among the Kurds. They have a political agenda that includes developing an independent state of Kurdistan as was promised in the past.

While the Kurds are predominantly Sunni Muslims, there are factions among them. But religious differences among the Kurds are ordinarily tolerated and not a major source of contention or conflict. However, the Sunni Kurds do have significant conflicts with the enthnic Arab Sunni Muslims within Iraq, partly due to the ethnicity differences, and partly due to the oppression by Arab Sunni Muslims that were powerful under Saddam's rule.

The Kurds also have some emnity toward Westerners for not fulfilling promises and supporting the cause of an independent Kurdish state. Although aligned with US and Coalition forces during the invasion of Iraq, there is some resentment toward these forces for not following through with support during the first Gulf War against Saddam Hussein. Future relationships with the Kurds will depend upon how they are treated in the process of rebuilding Iraq.

A recent development is that the Shi'ites and the Sunni Kurds are in conflict as a result of the bombing of a mosque that is a holy shrine and escalating retaliation.

Shi'ite Muslims: The Shi'ites are a population majority within Iraq. Many of the holiest Shi'ite shrines are in Iraq. Many of the Shi'a in southern and eastern Iraq have religious ties to clerics and influential families in Iran. Like the Kurds to the north of Baghdad, the majority of Shi'ites suffered oppression and atrocities under the Hussein regime. Under Saddam, many Shi'ite rituals and traditions were suppressed and restricted. By tradition and doctrine, Shi'ite Muslims have major conflicts over the succession of leadership over Muslims. Violence is a significant part of the Shi'ite history, as are rituals associated with sacrifice, pain and martyrdom. Self-flagellation, self-mutilation and stringent rituals of fasting are part of the Shi'a tradition.

Despite the traditions and history, not all Shi'ites follow exactly the same traditions. The vast majority of Shi'ites in Iraq are ethnic Arabs. Some are ethnic Persians, or a mixture of both cultures. However, Shi'ite clerics garner support through 1) preaching a certain message that is received by a locally or regionally identifiable group; 2) providing charity within a locality or region; and 3) who they are affiliated with in the process.

The rise to the upper ranks among Shi'ite clerics is dependent upon allegiances and alliances developed with other clerics and the people a cleric supports. This form of Islamic leadership is very much a political process. It is because of these political selection processes that we find ultra-extremists like al-Sadr having some influence and a militant following, while others like Sistani have a much broader and wider following. However, Sistani also has extensive connections in Iran and other hotbeds of Shi'ite activism.

Among the Shi'a there is a momentum for a theocratic society and government, with the belief that the imams (local prayer leaders), mullahs and ayatollahs will follow the Koran and implement "shari'a" (Islamic law based on the Koran). This is a tradition that is deeply rooted in the Shi'ite tradition and can be found in almost every corner where Shi'ite Muslims live.

Because the Baathist and Sunni dominated Hussein regime oppressed all Shi'ites, there is a shared suspiciousness toward anything secular. The moral attitudes under Shi'ite tradition is conservative to ultra-conservative (extreme). What many consider to be a moderate Shi'ite Muslim would still be seen on the conservative side of the world by an external observer.

The US Military has a report on the Shi'ites in Iraq: THE UNITED STATES AND IRAQ’S SHI’ITE CLERGY:
PARTNERS OR ADVERSARIES?

Sunni Muslims: Not all Sunni Muslims are previous members of the Baath party or part of the Hussein regime leadership. While the Sunnis are considered by many to be more moderate than Shi'ites, they remain conservative and dedicated to Islam, shari'a and an Islamic identity as a country. In Iraq there are Sunni Muslims that are ethnically Arab and others that are ethnically Kurd. These groups tend to remain significantly separate. Among the Arab Sunnis there are various political and religious influences, including the ultra-conservative Wahhabi influences coming out of Saudi Arabia, eastern parts of Jordan and Syria. Sunni Arabs are a minority within the Arab population as well as within the entire population. Under the Baathist leadership, Sunni Muslims received preferential treatment, unless the Sunni Muslim in question dared to question the regime or party.

There are resentments between the Sunnis and the Shi'ites, especially among the ethnic Arab population. The are also conflicts between Kurdish Sunnis and Arab Sunnis.

Families, Regions & Tribes: Add to the mix the traditional affiliations between families and clans, as well as clan affiliation and identification of a tribe, and the relationships among Iraqis get very confusing. Then, too, are the regional identifcations that have deep roots in history and tradition. Not only did tribes claim areas of origin, but also areas along traditional trade routes and shepherd trails, including wells and small villages.

Oil Resources: There are oil resources in various regions of Iraq. Possession and access to these oil-rich areas was severely restricted under the Hussein regime. Now that there is a new government, control over these areas, and the resulting wealth, is contentious. The Shi'ites that control the government see an opportunity to distribute wealth away from Sunnis that benefitted under Saddam. The Sunnis do not want to relinquish their access to this wealth. The Kurds also want to claim traditional Kurdish regions and the oil wealth in those areas. Iran also has its eyes on supporting Shi'ite access to these assets so Iranian Shi'ite clerics can tap into the wealth as well.

These dynamics do not gel together well.

Given these dynamics, traditions and conflicts, it is not surprising to see heated animosities developing between Arab Sunnis and Arab Shi'ites. The Kurds are probably going to sit back and allow the conflict to remain with ethnic lines. There are also religious lines to deal with.

In my assessment, civil war is inevitable unless there can be a split of Iraq into three equally important semi-autonomous regions: a Kurdish region, an Arab Sunni region and a Shi'ite region. Each region must receive an equal amount of access to the oil resources and the wealth it produces. Each repesctive group also needs access to Baghdad and a central government that has equal representation of each region and each distinct group.

The current constitution tries to impose a western style government on an eastern mindset. It just isn't going to work.

There are several strategic research papers on the Middle East available for review, including one that discusses the tribal and political relations in Iraq.