Friday, February 24, 2006

A Classic Example Of How Not To Use Statistics

THE WEIGHTINESS OF NEWT

Newt Gingrich is reportedly a scholar of history. He even holds professional positions that require him to analyze statistics on a daily basis. The Gingrich quote cited in this post by Jonathan Chait demonstrates that he may need to go back to school for a remdial on understanding statistics.

At one point Gingrich offers up what Carney describes as a "telling anecdote":

We just got a report yesterday that was in the newspaper that children on Medicaid are six times as likely to be obese as children who are not on Medicaid. Now even for a liberal that should give them some pause as to how bad Medicaid is as a system. - Newt Gingrich


Actually, this is a statistic, not an anecdote, and it isn't telling at all. Would the fact that Americans on Social Security have a vastly higher death rate than Americans who are not convince Gingrich that Social Security is a terrible system? Actually, it might. Bad example. How about this: Did you know that Americans who have been in prison are far more likely than the rest of us to commit violent crimes? It's true! Let's tear down all the prisons! - Jonathan Chait


TAKE-AWAY LESSON: Be careful when anyone with a pre-determined political agenda starts quoting statistics.

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