Manipulating The Polls, The Press, The Media & The Rest Of Us
When a Poll Is Not Really a Poll
We can no longer rely on the polls offered to us as proof that something is, or is not, true, wanted, desired, or in the mainstream of public opinion. Anyone with genuine training in survey, poll and social research methods can attest that over 70% of the polls and surveys taken are poorly designed, have an inherent (and greatly desired) bias in the way questions are offered, and are eventually manipulated before being released to the general public. Even the major polling houses--even the once revered Gallop organization--are releasing polls, surveys and research results that are inherently flawed, often by design.
The research coming out of many--if not most--research centers affiliated with major colleges and universities are under increased scrutiny because the people conducting them are either poorly trained in the methodologies, or are deliberately skewing the results because it will enhance their careers, their influence, or their cash flow from the organizations conducting the polls. Most of the major think tanks have not only an ideological bias, but are deliberately funded by industry and/or political sources that want a specific result. The Brookings Institute, Cato Institute, Heritage Foundation, Democratic Leadership Council, Enterprise Institute, and many other think tanks are biased by not only the ideology and the funding sources, but also by the hiring practices that do not allow competing viewpoints to be expressed in a scholarly manner.
Now we have the GOP holding a straw poll that requires those that wish to participate to pay a fee. This, of course, violates the first rule of thumb regarding legitimate polls: randomization. If only those willing to pay for participating in a GOP political poll are included in the process and outcome, then there is inherently a skew toward those willing to financially support the current GOP leadership.
Even in polls and research that are aimed at a political party and ideology should observe the rules about randomization... but we are living in an era where even the corruption of Tamany Hall, the Teapot Dome Scandal, and Watergate are surpassed in regard to audacity, willingness to do almost anything for control, and plain old manipulative bovine excrement.
It appears that the real goal of this manipulation is to raid the pockets of loyal Republican die-hards and load the coffers of the RNC with "soft money" that can be used outside of the rules that restrict particular candidates. The question now becomes which candidate will the RNC be pushing down out throats after it gets all this soft money? Of course, we can almost guarantee it won't go to support an underdog candidate that might actually have something other than the usual Washington insider bovine excrement and manipulation to offer.
Romney's Cash Beckons Iowans To Straw Poll
Walking A Hard Line On Campaign Trail in Iowa: Can Anti-Immigration Fervor Keep Tancredo in the Race?
We can no longer rely on the polls offered to us as proof that something is, or is not, true, wanted, desired, or in the mainstream of public opinion. Anyone with genuine training in survey, poll and social research methods can attest that over 70% of the polls and surveys taken are poorly designed, have an inherent (and greatly desired) bias in the way questions are offered, and are eventually manipulated before being released to the general public. Even the major polling houses--even the once revered Gallop organization--are releasing polls, surveys and research results that are inherently flawed, often by design.
The research coming out of many--if not most--research centers affiliated with major colleges and universities are under increased scrutiny because the people conducting them are either poorly trained in the methodologies, or are deliberately skewing the results because it will enhance their careers, their influence, or their cash flow from the organizations conducting the polls. Most of the major think tanks have not only an ideological bias, but are deliberately funded by industry and/or political sources that want a specific result. The Brookings Institute, Cato Institute, Heritage Foundation, Democratic Leadership Council, Enterprise Institute, and many other think tanks are biased by not only the ideology and the funding sources, but also by the hiring practices that do not allow competing viewpoints to be expressed in a scholarly manner.
Now we have the GOP holding a straw poll that requires those that wish to participate to pay a fee. This, of course, violates the first rule of thumb regarding legitimate polls: randomization. If only those willing to pay for participating in a GOP political poll are included in the process and outcome, then there is inherently a skew toward those willing to financially support the current GOP leadership.
Even in polls and research that are aimed at a political party and ideology should observe the rules about randomization... but we are living in an era where even the corruption of Tamany Hall, the Teapot Dome Scandal, and Watergate are surpassed in regard to audacity, willingness to do almost anything for control, and plain old manipulative bovine excrement.
It appears that the real goal of this manipulation is to raid the pockets of loyal Republican die-hards and load the coffers of the RNC with "soft money" that can be used outside of the rules that restrict particular candidates. The question now becomes which candidate will the RNC be pushing down out throats after it gets all this soft money? Of course, we can almost guarantee it won't go to support an underdog candidate that might actually have something other than the usual Washington insider bovine excrement and manipulation to offer.
High on the list of superpowers a campaign might wish for would be the ability to manipulate opinion surveys, and on Saturday in Ames, Iowa, Republican presidential contenders will get to live that dream through the Iowa straw poll.
The event, a tradition in election cycles in which there is no GOP incumbent, is billed as an indicator of how party members will vote in the Republican caucus in January. But while no one can stage-manage a random telephone poll, it is open season when any voting-age Iowan or Iowa college student with a $35 ticket has a say.
Few of the 40,000 people who are expected to descend on Iowa State University on Saturday have to reach into their own pockets to pay to participate in the so-called poll. The campaigns are more than happy to cover the entrance fee -- and so much more.
Republican presidential candidates looking to score high in the straw poll lure Iowans to Ames with not only free tickets, but also transportation, food and entertainment.
Before heading in to give a short speech, candidates will hold forth in the tents that each campaign rents around the Hilton Coliseum. (In 1999, President Bush, who carried the day, paid $43,500 for his well-located pavilion and $62,000 for pulled-pork sandwiches.) This year's favorite, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, advertises "music, barbecue and a whole lot of fun at our tent" on his Web site.
The proceeds from ticket sales, tent rentals, parking, etc., will go to the Iowa Republican Party, making the straw poll a bald money-making venture for the state GOP. A former state finance chairman said as much in stark terms to the Online NewsHour: "The Iowa straw poll was devised as a fundraising gimmick for the state party and nothing more than that."
Romney's Cash Beckons Iowans To Straw Poll
Walking A Hard Line On Campaign Trail in Iowa: Can Anti-Immigration Fervor Keep Tancredo in the Race?
posted by Jim Downey at 5:35 PM
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