Imagine The Laughter In Saudi Arabia

Bush Asking Arab Friends for Iraq Help

While we can applaud President Bush for finally seeing the handwriting on the wall, even if it is a bit late in the game, we must also question Bush's continued statements arguing that Iraq is not on the brink (if not already steeped in) of a civil war. Many of OUR generals and top military advisors are telling us that we are there, but Bush and his loyal minions are still touting--or should I say "staying the course"--the Al-Qaeda line. While there may be Al-Qaeda operatives in Iraq at this point, it does not take a PhD in world affairs to note that what is occuring in Iraq is an extension of the ideological battles between various tribal, ethnic and sectarian groups that have always existed in Iraq and other parts of the Middle East.

There is an old joke about putting two Jews in a room and coming out with seven arguments. My experience in the Middle East would support the idea of putting two Arab Muslims in a room and coming out with fifty arguments. That is not meant to be racist or prejudicial, only using a bad joke and a bad paraphrase to illustrate the problems with ideology in the Middle East. Even those that find reasons to support one another in some way can find reasons to argue--and even fight--with their allies. Part of the reason is that the Arab culture has always required a strong leader to maintain alliances and control over the various factions.

A good example of this is Bahrain. Sheik Hamad bin Issa Al-Khalifa, the amir of Bahrain, has his hands full with Shi'ites that receive money, religious support and ideological egging-on from Iran. Tapes and messages from militant Shi'ite clerics in Iran are smuggled into Bahrain. Broadcasts from Iran also provide these messages as well. These tapes, broadcasts and messages urge the overthrow of Bahrain's ruling family and the existing government. Certainly there is a lot of elitism in Bahrain and a lot of poverty. The vast majority of the wealthy in Bahrain, including those in government, are Sunni. Those that are the poorest in Bahrain are predominantly Shi'ite. Both Sheik Hamad and his father before him have tried to make Bahrain more lenient and tolerant, as well as supportive of education and opportunity. They haven't always been successful and Hamad has a tendency to revoke democratic rights and access to government when there are a lot of protests. But then again, most of these protests take the form of makeshift bombs that use propane tanks as the primary component of these explosives.

Bahrain is probably the most liberal of the Arab/Muslim nations in the Persian/Arabian Gulf. Yet, it is the target of Iranian mischief because it is less able to impose restrictions on Iran than some of its neighbors, including Saudi Arabia which is the real target of the Iranian clerics.

But Bush often gets a good laugh from our "allies" in the Middle East. The Saudis know the problems in Iraq better than any other nation in Mesopotamia or the Arab Penninsula. They face trouble with insurgents of all kinds, including but not limited to Al-Qaeda. The Saudi method of dealing with these folks is to be tolerant of religious views offered within the Muslim tradition, but to clamp down hard on any cleric that advocates violence or anti-Saud policies. When the Saudis clamp down, someone usually loses their head.

But Bush is not taken seriously in the Middle East. He is seen as someone that they have to tolerate for a short time. The Arabs are very patient when it comes to tolerating what they see as a minor nuisance. While most of the nations surrounding Iraq may be glad to be rid of Saddam in one sense, they are ridiculing the US invasion because we did not understand the need for a stringent system of control over the population to maintain order. Our leaders did not understand--and therefore did not consider--the cultural and political realities in Iraq. But that is probably why the laughter is also mixed with genuine disgust for the US... we have never really understood what has been going on in the Middle East because we insist on imposing our views on their problems.

But it would be great if other Arab/Muslim nations were to assist Iraq. Indeed, the arguments against the US and coalition forces could no longer be used as an excuse for the sectarian violence or the ideological drive for control over the political, economic and natural resources of Iraq. The Shi'ites know that now is the time to put forth the effort to obtain power and control, especially over many of the oil reserves and the oil wealth that was denied to them all the while the Baathists were in control. The Sunnis know that they are outnumbered and do not have an army to enforce their will, protect them, or even allow evacuation. The Kurds are in much the same situation as the Shi'ites, only they are taking a quieter approach waiting for the Sunnis and Shi'ites to finish killing each other off so they can make a play for an independent Kurdish state... with a lot of oil reserves at their disposal.

The fact that Bush and his team has not understood the issues, the culture or the problems is not really that amusing to the folks in the Middle East, but they would rather laugh than cry. But each of the nations surrounding Iraq has concerns over Iran, Israel and the fate that awaits Iraq. None of them want a totally Shi'ite or a totally Kurdish region or state in the area. King Abdullah of Jordan knows that he cannot have a Shi'ite stringhold so close to his borders. Syria would love to have Shi'ite support, but not another Shi'ite stronghold because of the close ties to Iran that exist because of the ties between Iraqi clerics and Iranian clerics (i.e. Al-Sadr). While Syria is predominantly Shi'ite, the Syrian regime has an agenda all its own. Turkey does not want a Kurdish state to form out of Iraq. While Turkey would be willing to be rid of all of its ethnic Kurds, the problem is that Turkey knows that there would be ancient claims on lands now considered parts of Turkey. Turkey also knows that in an international court of law it would lose its claims to many areas it took by force... and the Turks would have to decide whether or not a war would be worth the price of losing entry into the EU.

But Bush and his minions are so busy "spinning" the events in the Middle east they haven't bothered to deal with them. That is all the more reason for laughter in Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria, Kuwait, Oman, Yemen, Egypt and Iran. Hell, if it were not for the troops at risk everyday in Iraq, maybe we would laugh as well.

As President Bush and his top diplomats try to halt the downward spiral in Iraq and Lebanon, they seem intent on their strategy of talking only to Arab friends, despite increasing calls inside and outside the administration for them to reach out to Iran and Syria as well.

Mr. Bush and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice are traveling to Jordan this week for talks that are to include Iraq’s prime minister and a number of Sunni Arab leaders but exclude the Iranians and Syrians, despite the influence they wield in Iraq and Lebanon.

Meanwhile, one of Ms. Rice’s most trusted aides, Philip D. Zelikow, announced Monday that he was resigning his post as State Department counselor. Mr. Zelikow, widely viewed as a voice of candor in the administration on the Iraq crisis, said in his resignation letter that he would return to teaching at the University of Virginia. He cited a “truly riveting obligation to college bursars” for his children’s tuition.

An administration official said Mr. Zelikow had been frustrated with administration policy on the Middle East, including Iraq, and North Korea.

There have been signs of strain within the administration, particularly at the State Department, where career Foreign Service officials have argued for increased dialogue with Iran and Syria to try to stem the violence in Iraq and Lebanon. “We’ve got a mess on our hands,” said a senior State Department official, who, like others discussing the subject, spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss the subject publicly.

When Mr. Bush and Ms. Rice arrive in Amman on Wednesday, they will try to enlist help from Sunni Arab leaders to try to rein in the violence in Iraq by putting pressure on Sunni insurgents. That was part of Vice President Dick Cheney’s message to King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia during a brief visit on Saturday, administration officials said, and Mr. Bush will repeat that entreaty with King Abdullah II of Jordan, as will Ms. Rice when she meets for talks with Persian Gulf foreign ministers at the Dead Sea on Thursday and Friday.

Specifically, the United States wants Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt to work to drive a wedge between the Iraqi prime minister, Nuri Kamal al-Maliki, and the anti-American Shiite cleric Moktada al-Sadr, whose Mahdi Army has been behind many of the Shiite reprisal attacks in Iraq, a senior administration official said. That would require getting the predominantly Sunni Arab nations to work to get moderate Sunni Iraqis to support Mr. Maliki, a Shiite. That would theoretically give Mr. Maliki the political strength necessary to take on Mr. Sadr’s Shiite militias.

“There’s been some discussion about whether you just try to deal first with the Sunni insurgency, but that would mean being seen to be taking just one side of the fight, which would not be acceptable,” the administration official said, speaking on condition of anonymity under normal diplomatic practice.

But getting Sunni Arab nations to urge Iraqi Sunnis to back Mr. Maliki in the hopes of peeling him away from Mr. Sadr is a tall order under any circumstances, and it was made even taller last week after the killing of more than 200 people by bombings in a Shiite district of Baghdad, the deadliest single attack since the American invasion. The attacks led to violent reprisals; vengeful Shiite militiamen attacked Sunni mosques in Baghdad and Baquba.

“We’re clearly in a new phase, characterized by this increasing sectarian violence,” Stephen J. Hadley, the national security adviser, told reporters aboard Air Force One on the way to Estonia for a NATO summit meeting before Mr. Bush’s meeting with Mr. Maliki. “That requires us, obviously, to adapt to that new phase, and these two leaders need to be talking about how to do that and what steps Iraq needs to take and how we can support them.”

In return for helping on Iraq, the Sunni Arab countries have asked the Bush administration for a new push toward an Israeli-Palestinian peace accord. Mr. Bush has largely shied away from that longstanding demand, but things may be changing.

Ms. Rice may add two stops — Ramallah, in the West Bank, and Jerusalem — to her itinerary this week, administration officials said. While her schedule has not been made final, Ms. Rice is considering meeting with Ehud Olmert, the Israeli prime minister, and Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian Authority president.

Ms. Rice has argued in favor of stepping up work on the Israeli-Palestinian front, and several times this fall she has seemed to be on the verge of a major peace initiative, only to be overtaken by other crises.

A new cease-fire began Monday after Israeli and Palestinian leaders agreed to end five months of fighting in Gaza. The truce got off to a shaky start when Palestinian militants associated with Hamas and Islamic Jihad fired nine rockets into southern Israel, but American, Arab and European diplomats said this may be the most important chance in some time to end the fighting.

Mr. Olmert, in a speech on Monday, even suggested that the cease-fire could revive peace efforts. A visit by Ms. Rice to the region could further prod those efforts, American officials said.

“We have seldom seen the U.S. administration so focused on all of the constituent parts of putting the Middle East together as they are at this point,” a European diplomat said. “They seem to suddenly have got that this isn’t just about Iraq. It’s about a number of parts of the Rubik’s Cube that they have to put together again.”

Beyond Israel, another part of the puzzle is whether America will directly engage Iran and Syria, something the administration remains loath to do, despite indications that a bipartisan study group will recommend a regional diplomatic initiative to include both countries. The pressure to begin talks is rising, with former administration officials joining the call.

“The Syrians are saying, ‘We can negatively affect the situation in Lebanon and hurt your friends, we can negatively affect Iraq, but that’s all right, don’t talk to us,’ ” said Theodore H. Kattouf, President Bush’s former ambassador to Syria. “With diplomacy generally, if you’re not prepared to achieve your aims through warfare, then you have to engage in some horse-trading. Unfortunately, there isn’t much give-and-take between the U.S. and Syria right now.”